Answering the Question: Should I Buy Bitcoin Now?

Every bull run sparks debate, with many asking the classic question: Should I buy Bitcoin now? With bitcoin surpassing the $90,000 mark following the April 2024 halving, spot Bitcoin ETF hype, and US presidential election results, interest has surged and the excitement around a bull market is palpable.

This article dives into the current market cycle, macro trends impacting bitcoin’s value, supply dynamics post-halving, and strategies for entering the market thoughtfully.

Market Momentum and Bitcoin Cycles: Where Are We Now?

Bitcoin operates within distinct market cycles, influenced by factors like halvings, macroeconomic trends, and shifts in sentiment. Historically, Bitcoin's halving events—which reduce the block reward for miners by half—have acted as catalysts for bull runs within 12 to 18 months. With the most recent halving occurring in April 2024, some speculate that bitcoin is on the brink of another bull run.

However, bitcoin’s price isn’t solely influenced by the halving cycle. Global economic factors, geopolitical events, and sentiment in the broader financial markets all play a role. While the post-halving environment is generally bullish, bitcoin holders should be aware that external factors like economic policies, regulatory shifts, and investor behavior can alter the cycle’s impact.

The Bitcoin Cycle Top Could Occur in November 2025 

Macro Trends Driving Bitcoin's Value: Beyond the Hype

The recent surge in Bitcoin interest isn’t only about its market cycle. Broader economic forces drive demand for bitcoin as a store of value and hedge asset, particularly as economic uncertainty persists worldwide. Key macro trends influencing bitcoin’s value include:

• Inflation: As inflation rates rise, individuals and institutions seek assets that maintain value over time.

• Interest Rates: High interest rates generally make traditional financial assets more attractive, but recent market conditions have also highlighted the limitations of holding fiat currency in uncertain times. 

• Institutional Adoption: Institutional investment has increased steadily over the years, with companies and funds viewing bitcoin as a legitimate store of value. 

• Global Economic Stability: Bitcoin has often seen interest surge in times of global instability. Recent geopolitical events, including trade disruptions, supply chain issues, and rising economic tensions, have reinforced bitcoin’s role as a safe haven asset.

Supply Dynamics and the Recent Halving

Historically, each halving has driven notable shifts in bitcoin’s price. Following the 2020 halving, bitcoin’s price surged from approximately $8,700 to over $60,000 within a year. This historical pattern suggests that while the immediate impact of a halving may be modest, the price effects tend to unfold over the following months.

After the 2024 halving, bitcoin briefly hit an all-time high of $73,600 in March, and as of early November, it traded to an all time high of $90,100, reflecting significant growth since the year’s start.

The reduced supply entering circulation is set against a backdrop of increasing demand, reinforcing upward price pressure. Each halving amplifies bitcoin’s scarcity factor, which has proven attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

This supply-demand dynamic, coupled with bitcoin’s finite supply, positions it as an appealing asset in an inflationary environment, potentially contributing to continued appreciation in its value over time.

Bitcoin’s Supply Issuance Schedule

Assessing Investment Timing: Strategies for Managing Entry Points

For those interested in entering the Bitcoin market amid current bull-run chatter, strategic entry points can make a significant difference. Given bitcoin’s volatility, here are a few strategies to consider:

• Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): DCA involves buying small amounts of bitcoin over time, regardless of market price. This approach reduces the impact of short-term price swings, smoothing the entry process. 

• Momentum-Based Entry Points: Another strategy is to enter the market when there are clear signs of upward momentum. Technical indicators such as moving averages or relative strength indexes can offer signals for potential entry points. 

• Buying During Market Corrections: Volatility is common in bitcoin, with occasional price pullbacks even during bull markets.

Dollar-cost averaging is generally the best approach for most investors, as it offers a safer, more consistent strategy over the long term.

In contrast, strategies like momentum-based entries and buying during corrections can involve higher risk, making them less suitable for those who prioritize stability over potentially higher, yet unpredictable, returns.

DCA minimizes the impact of market volatility and reduces the likelihood of poorly timed entries.

Why Should Bitcoin Be in Every Diversified Portfolio?

For many investors, Bitcoin’s appeal lies in its potential as a store of value, diversification tool, and hedge against economic uncertainty. Adding bitcoin to a portfolio can reduce correlation to traditional assets like stocks or bonds, providing a layer of protection during times of market stress.

Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, despite its volatility, has demonstrated significant appreciation. A small allocation in a diversified portfolio can offer exposure to its upside potential without overexposing the investor to its risks.

For investors concerned about potential downturns, a balanced approach that limits exposure while allowing for potential gains is often recommended.

Top 10 Companies Holding Bitcoin on Their Balance Sheets

Risks and Considerations in a Bull Market

There are notable risks associated with buying bitcoin during this phase. Recognizing these risks can help investors make more informed decisions and avoid common pitfalls, such as:

• Overexposure: A common mistake during bull runs is allocating too much capital to bitcoin with a short-term goal.

• Short-Term Mindset: Entering the market with a short-term focus can lead to stress and poor decision-making, especially during sudden corrections. 

• Ignoring Market Corrections: In bull markets, prices rarely rise in a straight line. Market corrections are common and can present better entry points. 

• Lack of Research: Investing in bitcoin without understanding the broader trends, economic implications, and market cycles can be risky. 

Conclusion

The question of whether to buy bitcoin now ultimately depends on individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Bitcoin’s current market cycle, combined with supporting macro trends and the recent halving, creates an environment ripe for growth.

For those considering entry points, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging, momentum-based entry, and buying during corrections can provide a balanced approach.

Bitcoin’s limited supply, growing institutional adoption, and appeal as a hedge against economic instability underscore its value in a diversified portfolio.